With historic El Ni帽o forecast, Samoa launches village-level disaster risk assessment with 糖心视频

University of Hawaiʻi
Contact:
Chani Goering, 808-495-3865
Communications Manager, Pacific Disaster Center
Posted: Oct 14, 2026

University of Hawai驶i’s Pacific Disaster Center and Samoa’s Disaster Management Office begin yearlong program, supported by U.S. Embassy in Apia

APIA, Samoa — As forecasters warn that El Niño could reach historic strength this year, the Government of Samoa and the University of Hawai驶i’s Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) launched a yearlong assessment on October 14 to assess the island nation’s disaster risk down to the village level.

Led by Samoa’s Disaster Management Office (DMO)  under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE), with support from the U.S. Embassy in Apia, the National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment (NDPBA) opened with more than 60 participants from meteorology, health, water, agriculture, emergency services, and other sectors. Findings will feed directly into PDC’s DisasterAWARE early warning and decision support platform that is used by decision makers across the Pacific to plan, prepare for and respond to disasters. The approach enables agencies to immediately make use of assessment data during this El Niño season rather than waiting for a final report.

Samoa continues to face a wide range of hazards, including tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, quakes, tsunamis, public health emergencies, and the increasing impacts of climate change. These challenges remind us that effective disaster preparedness is not the responsibility of one agency alone, but rather a collective effort that requires strong partnerships, coordinated actions, and inclusive participation across all sectors of society,” said Afioga Su‘emalo Talie Foliga, Acting Chief Executive Officer of Samoa’s MNRE.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gives a 75% chance that El Niño will reach historic strength across the Central and Eastern Pacific between October and December. Samoa’s Meteorology Division has forecast an 80 to 90 percent chance of below-normal rainfall in the months ahead. The dry season has already reduced water supplies, thinned harvests and contributed to grass fires near Apia, and the division has warned that tropical cyclone risk remains elevated as the cyclone season begins in November.

“The National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment will help assess disaster risks and identify and prioritize actions to reduce the most pressing of these,” said PDC Senior Operations Advisor Steve Recca. “We will learn from each other, and the expertise in this room is a testament to our mutual commitment to be better prepared for whatever hazard we might face. While today’s workshop formally launches the project, PDC has been working with the DMO to understand Samoa’s hazards and their impacts. We mark the beginning of the project, but the relationship between DMO and PDC will continue to grow and evolve as we work together towards our shared goal of a safer and more resilient Samoa.”U.S. Chargé d’Affaires to Samoa Matthew Younger said the cross-sector turnout reflects Samoa’s whole-of-nation commitment to safer communities. 

 “Today is a monumental step forward in our journey together. We are breaking new ground with this assessment. Resilience is not built overnight, nor is it built by the government alone. It requires data, technology, community-level awareness, and above all, unwavering partnership, which we are here to offer today and to celebrate by launching the National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment. Today, we are equipping Samoa's villages, disaster managers, and leaders with the precision tools needed to anticipate threats, protect families, and safeguard Samoa's sustainable future.”

Over the next year, the program will produce district-level risk profiles, an analysis of Samoa’s disaster management capabilities, and a five-year plan of action. The NDPBA is the only U.S. program recognized by the United Nations for helping countries to operationalize the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

About the Pacific Disaster Center

Established by Congress after Hurricane Iniki struck Kaua驶i in 1992, PDC is a University of Hawai驶i applied research center that has worked alongside Pacific island nations and with countries around the globe for three decades on early warning, risk assessment, and building advanced decision support capabilities. Thirty-three countries have completed PDC’s NDPBA program. For more information, visit pdc.org.

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