As climate change, biodiversity loss, and competing ocean uses place increasing pressure on marine ecosystems, the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa is launching a new Center for Ocean Policy to bring together ocean science and legal expertise to develop solutions for some of the most pressing ocean and climate challenges facing Hawaiʻi and the world.

The novel collaboration between 糖心视频 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 Department of Oceanography, in the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), and the William S. Richardson School of Law will open new opportunities for interdisciplinary education, applied research, and policy engagement. Students will gain firsthand experience working at the intersection of science, law, and public policy through clinics, capstone projects, and advocacy initiatives focused on real-world environmental issues.

Since 2020, The Healy Foundation has partnered with to support an annual research assistant position known as The Healy Foundation Climate Change Fellow. In 2024, the partnership expanded to three Fellows, who conduct research and provide other support activities for the City and County of Honolulu Climate Change Commission.

Additionally, The Healy Foundation has systematically supported 糖心视频 through a number of initiatives including , 糖心视频 Maui College s and

Suzanne Geary, executive director of The Healy Foundation, said, “The Center for Ocean Policy offers a powerful new bridge between science and law. It creates a platform for scientific insights to directly inform the policies and decisions that protect our oceans and coastal communities.” she added, “We are excited to support this forward-thinking approach and continue building on our long-standing partnership with the University of Hawaiʻi Foundation and 糖心视频 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 Institute for Sustainability and Resilience.”

糖心视频 Mānoa Chancellor Vassilis L. Syrmos called the Center a major milestone for the institution.

“As a flagship university in the middle of the Pacific, it is our kuleana (responsibility) to apply our unique place-based knowledge and cutting-edge research to help shape the future of ocean stewardship,” he said. “The Center for Ocean Policy brings together the expertise needed to translate scientific knowledge into meaningful policy solutions for Hawaiʻi and communities around the world.”

Law-Ocean Clinic

One of the Center鈥檚 first initiatives will be a Law-Ocean Clinic, which will pair law and oceanography students with local nonprofit organizations to conduct policy research and advocacy during the Hawaiʻi legislative session.

“This partnership will equip our law students to tackle complex environmental challenges and advance policies that support coastal resilience in Hawaiʻi,” said Camille Nelson, dean of the William S. Richardson School of Law. “By understanding the science behind the policy, they will be better prepared to advocate for our island communities.”

The Center will also offer interdisciplinary seminars and launch an annual symposium beginning in its second year, bringing together researchers, policymakers, legal practitioners and community members to address emerging ocean policy issues.

“The Center for Ocean Policy perfectly aligns with 糖心视频 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 academic mission to foster innovative, cross-disciplinary education,” said Margaret McManus, chief academic advancement officer in the Office of the Chancellor and director of the Uehiro Center for the Advancement of Oceanography. “These unique opportunities will prepare a new generation of leaders to work across the intersections of science, law and policy, and help address the challenges facing our oceans.”

SOEST Dean Chip Fletcher emphasized that the Center builds on the longstanding strengths of both schools while deepening 糖心视频 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 commitment to Native Hawaiian and Indigenous Pacific communities.

“SOEST and the William S. Richardson School of Law each have long and distinguished records of working with Native Hawaiian and other Indigenous Pacific communities on issues of ocean stewardship, climate resilience, resource management, and justice,” Fletcher said. “The Center for Ocean Policy builds on that shared foundation, bringing science, law, and Indigenous knowledge together to help shape policies that are effective, place-based, and responsive to the communities whose lives and futures are most closely tied to the ocean.”

examining how tropical cyclone activity near Hawaiʻi could change in a warmer future finds a shift toward stronger storms, even though uncertainty remains about whether the total number of storms near the islands will increase. The study was led by researchers at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (SOEST).

“This research addresses a hazard that is rare in Hawaiʻi but can have enormous consequences when it occurs,” said Nicole Murray, lead author who was a postdoctoral researcher in the SOEST at the time of this research. “The events of this hurricane season make that especially tangible: storms do not need to make a conventional landfall to disrupt communities, damage infrastructure and create dangerous flooding and wind impacts.”

Only a small number of tropical cyclones have directly affected the islands during the modern observational record. Limited data, however, makes it difficult for scientists to estimate the probabilities of rare events or determine how those probabilities might change in the future.

Simulating tropical cyclones

Murray and team addressed that problem by using the Columbia Tropical Cyclone Hazard computer model created by study co-authors Chia-Ying Lee and Suzana Camargo at Columbia University. The model generated thousands of years鈥� worth of synthetic tropical cyclones from the atmospheric and oceanic conditions simulated by seven global climate models. This provided the researchers with a much larger sample of possible storms than observations alone could provide.

They examined storms passing within 300 nautical miles of Hawaiʻi and analyzed their frequency, intensity, tracks, duration, speed and landfalls under historical, mid-century and late-century climates. The future simulations use a high-emissions scenario to examine how tropical cyclone activity could respond under substantial future warming. They also separated storms occurring during El Niño and La Niña years, allowing the team to examine whether the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Hawaiʻi tropical cyclone hazard could change in a warmer future.

Assessing changes in El Niño and hurricane hazard

El Niño has historically provided useful context for understanding heightened tropical cyclone hazards around Hawaiʻi. This study found an important change in the relationship between El Niño and Hawaiʻi’s tropical cyclone risk. Historically, El Niño tends to favor stronger and more frequent tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi compared with La Niña. In the team鈥檚 late-century simulations, the differences between El Niño and La Niña become less pronounced, particularly for tropical cyclone wind hazard, while the spatial pattern of storm tracks also changes. During El Niño, tropical cyclone tracks shift southwest of the Hawaiian Islands relative to La Niña conditions.

“The 2026 hurricane season has provided a powerful reminder of this,” said Christina Karamperidou, co-author and SOEST atmospheric sciences professor. “Hurricane Lala passed just south of the islands in August and produced severe flooding and damaging winds across Hawaiʻi; Hurricane Lowell approached Hawaiʻi from the south in September before passing west of the state, producing damaging winds, heavy rainfall and flooding, with particularly severe impacts on Kauaʻi.”

This research connects large-scale climate dynamics of the tropical Pacific with hazards that impact communities across Hawaiʻi. Tropical cyclone risk is not simply a question of how many hurricanes make landfall. Storms passing near the islands can produce damaging winds, extreme rainfall, flooding, landslides, high surf and other cascading hazards.

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Human rights lawyer and climate justice advocate Julian Aguon, an alumnus of the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa , has been named to the , TIME鈥檚 annual list recognizing 100 rising leaders shaping the future and defining the next generation of leadership.

Aguon was selected in the Innovators category for his groundbreaking work advancing climate justice and the rights of Pacific Island nations and communities. TIME100 Next recognizes individuals across five categories: Artists, Phenoms, Leaders, Advocates and Innovators.

In his TIME100 Next profile, Aguon is recognized for serving as lead counsel to the Republic of Vanuatu in the landmark climate proceedings before the International Court of Justice, which resulted in a unanimous 2025 advisory opinion on countries鈥� legal obligations to address climate change.

“It鈥檚 an honor to be included. And a little wild, if I鈥檓 gonna be honest,” said Aguon. “But it鈥檚 also heartening to see how wide their conception of influence is at TIME. I鈥檓 not the first from the climate justice movement to make the list, and I hope not to be the last. Climate change is the defining challenge of our time, and so we need every single light shone on it, with a view toward widening our collective vision and our sense of what is possible.”

More on Aguon

A 2009 graduate of the 糖心视频 law school, Aguon is an internationally recognized human rights lawyer and founder of Blue Ocean Law, a law firm based in Guam that works across the Pacific on issues of self-determination, environmental justice and Indigenous rights.

The TIME100 Next recognition follows several major honors for Aguon and his work. In 2025, Aguon and the Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change received the Right Livelihood Award for their efforts to bring the call for climate justice before the world鈥檚 highest court.

“Julian Aguon鈥檚 recognition as a TIME100 Next 2026 honoree celebrates an international leader whose courageous advocacy has expanded our sense of what can be achieved by presciently harnessing the power of human rights, environmental justice and Indigenous wisdom,” said 糖心视频 law school Dean Camille Nelson. “For our students and community, he is an inspiring example of what is possible when excellence is fortified by conviction, compassion and a profound sense of responsibility to others and the planet.”

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To help protect 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 vulnerable coastal highways from erosion and rising seas, the Hawaiʻi Department of Transportation (HDOT) is launching the Kalaeloa Hybrid Reef Project. Developed by Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) via its Reefense Program and the University of Hawaiʻi alongside academic, community and industry partners the project is an example of nature-based coastal engineering—an emerging approach that combines engineered infrastructure with natural ecosystems to protect vulnerable coastlines. The hybrid reef system integrates engineered reef structures with living coral to reduce wave energy, strengthen shorelines and improve coastal resilience. The deployment marks the first large-scale ocean demonstration of the technology, following four years of research and development.

“Success at Kalaeloa could provide a model for protecting vulnerable coastlines throughout Hawaiʻi and beyond,” said HDOT Director Edwin Sniffen. “We鈥檙e not just defending our shorelines, we鈥檙e building a resilient, self-sustaining ecosystem. By partnering with DARPA and 糖心视频, we are helping position Hawaiʻi as a global leader in nature-based coastal engineering.”

Funded by DARPA, the hybrid reef structures were researched, developed and deployed in collaboration with 糖心视频, Makai Engineering, Kuleana Coral Restoration and other partners. Following deployment, ownership of the structures will transfer to HDOT.

The first year of monitoring and maintenance of the project is funded by the State鈥檚 Green Fee program, which supports conservation and environmental initiatives that protect and restore 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 natural resources. The investment supports the first large-scale demonstration of a nature-based alternative to seawalls that aims to reduce coastal erosion, wave damage and storm surge while enhancing marine habitat.

“The Green Fee is about investing in innovative solutions that protect 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 people, natural resources and economy for generations to come,” said Governor Josh Green. “The Kalaeloa Hybrid Reef Project is exactly the kind of forward-thinking partnership we envisioned, bringing together science, innovation and environmental stewardship to strengthen our coastlines while preserving the natural resources that make Hawaiʻi unique.”

“Through Reefense, DARPA is reimagining coastal defense by combining cutting-edge materials science with adaptive biology to protect vital infrastructure and personnel from wave damage, erosion, and severe storms,” said Catherine Campbell, DARPA Reefense Program Manager. “Our collaboration with the University of Hawaiʻi, state leadership, and local partners at Kalaeloa translates high-risk, high-reward defense research into a scalable, real-world solution that safeguards critical transportation corridors while strengthening the surrounding marine ecosystem.”

A 鈥榣iving鈥� breakwater

The Kalaeloa Hybrid Reef is a 糖心视频-developed living breakwater designed to reduce wave energy while improving the natural habitat. The system consists of 60 engineered, porous concrete reef mimicking structures manufactured in Hawaiʻi that dissipate wave energy while allowing water to flow through the reef. Coral settlement modules attached to the structures will support the recruitment and growth of native corals while specially developed biomaterials will repel competing algae and accelerate coral growth. These and other technologies being tested will allow the reef to develop into a healthy, self-sustaining ecosystem over time.

The project site is a degraded area with a hard rock bottom south of Kalaeloa Harbor. Although there is minimal live coral in the project site, work at Kalaeloa will begin with the careful removal of any coral fragments present and preservation of that coral on growing tables near the project area. Next will be installation of the reef structures, attachment of live coral fragments to the structures, and continued scientific monitoring to evaluate their performance.

The deployment is the result of four years of research and development by the Rapid Resilient Reefs for Coastal Defense (R3D) consortium. Led by the 糖心视频 and the , the initiative brings together researchers from five 糖心视频 laboratories, partner universities and local organizations, including Makai Ocean Engineering and Kuleana Coral Restoration.

“Kalaeloa will become a living laboratory where we can evaluate how nature-based coastal engineering performs under real-world ocean conditions,” said Ben Jones, R3D principal investigator and director of ocean science and technology at the 糖心视频 Applied Research Laboratory. “Our goal is to demonstrate that living breakwaters can provide an effective alternative to traditional shoreline hardening and to collect the scientific data needed to guide future coastal resilience projects in Hawaiʻi and around the world.”

Community helps guide long-term stewardship

Once deployed, the Kalaeloa Hybrid Reef will serve as a living laboratory for the emerging field of nature-based coastal engineering, which integrates engineered infrastructure with natural ecosystems. Long-term monitoring will be guided by the newly established Kalaeloa Hybrid Reef Monitoring Hui, a partnership of researchers, agency representatives, community organizations and cultural practitioners that will assess the reef’s environmental, engineering and cultural impacts. This local partnership includes community stakeholders such as the Makakilo-Kapolei-Honokai Hale Neighborhood Board, and the mālama kai organization Hoʻola Hāniʻo.

“This project would not be possible without the partnership of the local community,” said Sniffen. “We are grateful to the organizations and cultural practitioners who have helped shape this effort and will continue to guide its long-term stewardship. Their knowledge and commitment are essential to the project’s success.”

The findings will be shared with regulators, engineers and coastal managers to help inform future shoreline protection projects in Hawaiʻi and elsewhere. If successful, the Kalaeloa Hybrid Reef could provide a scalable, nature-based approach to protecting vulnerable coastlines while advancing the growing field of nature-based coastal engineering.

Building a living reef

The Kalaeloa Hybrid Reef is an example of nature-based coastal engineering, integrating coastal engineering, marine biology and innovative deployment techniques to create a living coastal protection system. 糖心视频 has partnered with University of California San Diego (UCSD) and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), Florida Atlantic University and Ohio State University on its development.

Engineered reef structures: The foundation relies on specifically designed concrete reef structures designed by Ocean and Resources Engineering at 糖心视频 cast by Kapolei-based firms Jensen Infrastructure and GPRM Prestress, located less than two miles from the deployment site. In large-scale wave-flume tests, these model breakwaters successfully reduced incoming wave energy by more than 80% while remaining stable during extreme conditions.

3D-printed coral habitat: To kickstart the living reef, the Hawaiʻi Institute of Marine Biology developed 3D-printed ceramic modules featuring small, spiral-shaped shelters called “helix recesses.” Experiments in Kāneʻohe Bay showed that these crevices yielded an 80-fold increase in baby coral settlement and up to a 50-fold increase in survival rates compared to flat surfaces.

Biomaterials: Researchers at the UCSD have developed novel materials that reduce algae competition while allowing for coral to grow on the structures. Other materials provision the juvenile coral with nutrients needed in their early life stages.

Acoustic Enrichment: Researchers at UCSD–SIO have recorded sounds of healthy reefs that will be broadcast near the living breakwater to encourage algae-grazing fish to the site.

Low-impact deployment: To minimize disruption to the marine environment during deployment, Makai Ocean Engineering has developed a shallow-water catamaran, eliminating the need for heavy crane barges. Additionally, the structures will be anchored using a novel rotary micropiling system, which significantly reduces the anchoring footprint and sound pollution compared with traditional pile drivers.

Almost two million Olympic-size pools of water (1.3 trillion gallons) inundated Hawaiʻi August 14–16, as Hurricane Lala tracked just south of the islands. Delivering one of the state’s most significant tropical cyclone impacts in decades, the storm triggered severe flash flooding and damaging winds. Through the University of 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 Hawaiʻi Mesonet and the Hawaiʻi Climate Data Portal (HCDP), researchers captured the massive scale of this storm.

While Lala never made an official landfall, its close pass as a Category 1 hurricane brought average statewide rainfall of 11.4 inches. Hawaiʻi County received 66% of the total rainfall volume—equivalent to 1.2 million pools (833 billion gallons).

Naʻalehu flash flooding and station records

Communities such as Naʻalehu on Hawaiʻi Island experienced devastating inundation from flash flooding. Hawaiʻi Mesonet stations highlighted the extreme localized intensity of the storm: the Laupahoehoe station in Hamakua recorded a daily maximum rainfall of 32.1 inches on August 15. Almost simultaneously, the Kaiholena station, located upslope of the Naʻalehu area, recorded 24.4 inches, including a remarkable 4.4 inches of rain in a single hour, 7:30–8:30 p.m. This was the highest observed hourly rainfall rate in the state during the entire three-day event. Combined with steep mountain slopes, this intense rainfall resulted in flash flooding that severely impacted the community in Naʻalehu.

As the storm progressed, the rest of the counties experienced their peak rainfall a day later, on August 16. While their totals were lower than Hawaiʻi Island’s, they still saw substantial averages: Maui County recorded a cumulative 6.6 inches of rain, equivalent to 203,595 pools (134 million gallons). Honolulu County (Oʻahu) recorded 5.5 inches of rain, equivalent to 86,357 pools (57 million gallons), and Kauaʻi County recorded 3.1 inches, equivalent to 45,055 pools (29 million gallons).

“Storms like Lala remind us why sustained, high-quality rainfall measurement matters so much in Hawaiʻi,” said Tom Giambelluca, director of the Hawaiʻi Mesonet. “Our terrain can turn the same storm into a 2-inch event in one valley and a 40-inch event a few miles away—without a dense network like the Mesonet, we’d have no way to capture that difference or understand what actually happened on the ground.”

Strong winds and dangerous gusts

The storm also unleashed high winds, with station-derived hourly wind speeds peaking at 60 mph on Hawaiʻi Island. Strong winds were also measured on Maui (56 mph), Oʻahu (39 mph) and Kauaʻi which led to downed power lines and fallen trees across the islands. Wind gusts of 80 mph were recorded at Puʻuloa in Kohala, and up to 79 mph on Haleakalā. Researchers expect that wind gusts were even more intense in some areas that do not have a climate station.

“One of the biggest challenges with wind is that we simply don’t have stations everywhere, especially at higher elevations and in remote terrain,” said Matt Lucas, HCDP product development lead. “Newly developed high-resolution wind speed maps let us estimate conditions in the gaps between stations, especially in extreme terrain where winds can be accelerated 2–4 times by landscape effects. This means disaster responders, property owners, and land managers aren’t left guessing about what happened in places where we didn’t have a station.”

The Hawaiʻi Mesonet, a statewide network of state-of-the-art weather stations, provides critical weather information across the islands giving a birds eye view into the data behind extreme weather events. Using observations from the Hawaiʻi Mesonet and digital maps produced on the HCDP maps, the team has released a new interactive website documenting the weather impacts of Hurricane Lala. 糖心视频 the HCDP Extreme Event Page to explore new interactive rainfall and wind speed maps as well as station data from the event. End users can sort information by county and for each day of the storm.

As one of the most influential scientists in tropical climate dynamics worldwide, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Professor Tim Li was by the American Meteorological Society. Fellows are elected based on “outstanding contributions to the atmospheric or related oceanic or hydrologic sciences or their applications during a substantial period of years.”

“It is meaningful to be recognized by the scientific community for hard work and research accomplishments,” said Li, who is also with the (IPRC) in the .

Li鈥檚 research focuses on various aspects of tropical meteorology and climate dynamics, including the dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, Asian-Australian monsoon, climate change and more.

His recent studies focus on understanding the onset diversity of El Niño and La Niña, super El Niño and multi-year La Niña formation, and extreme weather events. In his research he utilizes observational data analyses alongside theory, numerical model experiments and climate model simulations.

Li has published 470 professionally referred research papers and a book, with 28,000 citations and a h-index of 91. In recognition of scholarly contributions that expand the boundaries of knowledge and enrich the lives of students and the community, he received 糖心视频 Board of Regents Excellence in Research Award in 2019. He was of the Asia-Oceania Geoscience Society in 2025.

“Tim Li has made many significant contributions in tropical meteorology and climate dynamics, and he exemplifies excellence in research and education at 糖心视频,” said Malte Stuecker, director of IPRC.

University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa atmospheric scientists found that the century-old yardstick used across many industries to estimate air-conditioning and refrigeration energy demand—called cooling degree days—is missing something fundamental.

Published in , the study reports a new, physics-based version of the metric—effective cooling degree days—that captures how temperature and humidity together impact the actual work a cooling system is required to do. Applying it across North America, they found that cooling efficiency has been declining by 2–4% per decade since 1971, and that the old temperature-only metric misjudges how much cooling is required in different regions. This has led to overstating demand in some places and understating it in others.

“Estimates of cooling degree days are used everywhere,” said Jake Casselman, postdoctoral researcher in the 糖心视频 Mānoa (SOEST). “Utility companies, grid operators, energy planners, and engineers use them to anticipate electricity demand, and financial markets trade futures on them to hedge against unusually hot summers. If that yardstick is biased in ways that depend on a region’s climate, then the planning decisions built on it are biased too. That can mean building the wrong amount of power generation in the wrong place, or misjudging where the grid is most at risk during a heat wave.”

Challenging an old assumption

The previous approach to estimating cooling requirements assumes every degree of heat takes the same amount of energy to cool, no matter the conditions. But real cooling systems don’t work that way: they get less efficient as it gets hotter, and humidity makes it worse, because the system has to spend energy wringing moisture out of the air, not just lowering the temperature.

Casselman and Christina Karamperidou, an atmospheric sciences professor in SOEST, combined climate science with refrigeration engineering to develop a new cooling demand metric that explicitly accounts for how cooling system efficiency changes with temperature and humidity. Their approach incorporates a simplified model of the refrigeration cycle—the same physics governing every air conditioner and refrigerator—to estimate how efficiently a cooling system can remove heat under different atmospheric conditions. They applied this new cooling demand metric to 50 years of high-resolution weather data (1971鈥�2020) across North America to quantify how climate-driven changes in cooling efficiency have already reshaped cooling demand across regions.

They repeated the analysis using projections from 19 climate models under a high-emissions scenario to assess future changes. Finally, they mapped the results onto the U.S. electricity grid, accounting for where people live, to identify the regions and power systems most likely to experience the largest shifts in cooling demand.

“Our results show that the regions facing the steepest future increases in cooling demand are the Northwest, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic, where some grid regions are projected to see cooling-related electricity demand more than double by mid-century in this high-emissions ‘worst-case scenario,’” Karamperidou said. “Getting cooling demand right isn’t an academic exercise; it directly affects how we plan, size, and operate future energy infrastructure as the climate changes.”

Pulling in opposite directions

The impact of humidity introduced a real twist on the findings. They reported that in some regions, like the desert Southwest, they expected efficiency to decline However, they found that as the air grows drier, the ease of cooling offsets the penalty of higher temperatures, keeping efficiency steady or even improving it in some spots. In humid regions, heat and moisture compound each other, so the energy burden is worse than temperature alone would suggest.

“Seeing these two effects pull in opposite directions across the continent, what we ended up calling a ‘tug-of-war,’ is something a temperature-only view would never reveal,” said Casselman.

To ensure their model was both applicable and accurate, the researchers incorporated a refrigeration framework that captures the specific physics of how temperature and humidity affect efficiency. This project was made possible through the researchers鈥� interactions with thermal-management engineers at the , of which 糖心视频 is a key partner institution.

Since the first major bleaching event in 1996, Hawaiian corals have been subject to increasing heat stress and more prevalent bleaching events. New research from oceanographers at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa used over the 21st century. Comparing this heat stress to previous estimates of the rate at which corals may adapt to changing conditions, the authors found that Hawaiian corals have the possibility of adapting to future heat stress, even under a high emissions scenario.

“Our research shows that Hawaiian corals may be exposed to unprecedented human-induced heat stress in the coming decades,” said Kate Feloy, lead author of the study, who conducted this work as part of her doctoral research in the in the 糖心视频 Mānoa (SOEST). “However, our results also provide some surprising hope that Hawaiian corals may be able to adapt to increasing temperatures.”

Feloy and co-authors used high-resolution ocean simulations, run under three different climate emissions scenarios. The modeling approach accounts for small-scale processes and can reveal important spatial patterns in local warming. This is the first time this type of high-resolution climate projection has been used to assess future heat stress around the main Hawaiian islands.

Differences across the island chain

Coral reefs have high cultural and economic value and are a critical source of food and coastal protection in Hawaiʻi. This study provides projected heat stress not just for the region as a whole but examines differences across and between individual islands. The team鈥檚 results show that not all coastal locations are projected to experience human-induced climate change at the same rate. They found that corals around Hawaiʻi Island are projected to experience higher heat stress than the other islands.

“The differences in warming are caused by complex ocean dynamics on small spatial scales in the waters around Hawaiʻi,” Feloy said. “These dynamics change the spatial patterns of human-induced coastal warming. Because of the spatial differences in projected heat stress, the rate at which corals will need to adapt in order to keep pace with increasing temperatures varies around the islands.”

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The (Hawaiʻi Sea Grant) has been awarded approximately $2.4 million in federal funding to advance island sustainability, protect unique marine ecosystems, support research, and develop a robust blue economy workforce. The funding is part of a continued, bipartisan investment by the U.S. Congress to extend the Hawaiʻi Sea Grant funding through 2026.

While the program operates as a federal-university partnership across , this localized funding ensures Hawaiʻi can continue to address the accelerating environmental and economic challenges specific to island communities.

“We are deeply grateful to the Hawaiʻi Congressional Delegation and the bipartisan coalition in Congress for their continued investment in the National Sea Grant College Program and in the communities we have served for nearly 60 years across Hawaiʻi and the Pacific,” said Darren T. Lerner, Hawaiʻi Sea Grant director. “This support strengthens Hawaiʻi Sea Grant鈥檚 ability to connect university research, community knowledge, and on-the-ground action to address coastal hazards, restore ecosystems, support sustainable seafood and aquaculture, and prepare the next generation of ocean and coastal leaders.”

Congressional support for local initiatives

U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz played a pivotal role in the reauthorization and amendment of the National Sea Grant College Program Act in 2020.

“Sea Grant does incredibly important work, including promoting adaptation to king tides in Waikīkī, fighting to save corals, and leading community-based stewardship of land and ocean across the state,” said Schatz. “We鈥檙e going to continue working to deliver more funding so that Sea Grant can keep building a more resilient Hawaiʻi.”

U.S. Rep. Ed Case emphasized that this funding is a critical safeguard for the state鈥檚 future, particularly as we face extreme disasters.

“In these uncertain times, we must redouble our efforts to support all those working to preserve and protect our coastal and marine ecosystems like our University of Hawaiʻi Sea Grant College Program,” said Case. “Hawaiʻi Sea Grant is a prime example of focus over decades on critical issues related to sustainable coastal development, tourism, hazard resiliency, sustainable aquaculture, Indigenous knowledge, and the impacts of climate change.”

Building a resilient future

With this $2.4 million allocation, Hawaiʻi Sea Grant will continue to bridge the gap between academic research and community action. By securing these funds, the Hawaiʻi Congressional Delegation has ensured that the state鈥檚 coastal communities remain vibrant, sustainable and prepared for the challenges of the 21st century.

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Coral reef decline driven by climate change could cost Hawaiʻi residents between $1.8 billion and $3 billion in lost reef-related activities by 2100, according to a published in Ecological Economics. The research projects these burdens will not fall equally, with lower-income and disadvantaged communities in the state facing disproportionate impacts.

The study was led by researchers at the University of Hawaiʻi at 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 (CTAHR), alongside scientists from the Norwegian University of Life Sciences and the University of Trento. It is one of the first studies to combine detailed ecological models with community-level economic data across the state.

“Coral reefs are foundational to life in Hawaiʻi culturally, ecologically and economically,” said lead author Ashley Lowe Mackenzie, an affiliated faculty member in the CTAHR Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management (NREM). “Our work makes visible something that is often invisible in policy conversations by valuing real welfare losses that residents will experience as these ecosystems degrade.”

Mapping future losses

The research team used a sophisticated biophysical simulation called the Atlantis ecosystem model to project how coral cover will change across nearshore reef systems through the year 2100. They tested three different climate pathways representing low, mid-range and high global emissions scenarios.

By connecting these ecological shifts with a recreation demand model, they mapped potential economic losses for residents at a precise 1-kilometer resolution. Because the figures only capture local recreational use—such as swimming, snorkeling and diving—the authors emphasize that the $1.8 billion to $3 billion estimate represents a lower end of total economic damage.

Key findings include:

• The earliest and most severe losses are projected along the leeward (west and south) coasts of Hawaiʻi Island and Maui.
• Recreational losses are expected to spread northward to Oʻahu by mid-century.
• Under a high-emissions climate scenario, nearshore reefs face a near-total collapse by 2100. Under a low-emissions scenario, some windward (east and north) coastlines show signs of partial recovery late in the century.

Disproportionate impacts on local communities

Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency鈥檚 environmental justice tool (EJScreen), the researchers discovered that disadvantaged communities often face higher per-person welfare losses. Traditional economic methods usually project lower monetary losses for lower-income groups, making this finding particularly striking. The data indicate that vulnerable communities are disproportionately exposed to the specific areas experiencing the steepest reef declines.

“This study puts numbers to what our communities have long understood—that losing our reefs means losing the recreational opportunities, cultural practices, and quality of life that define what it means to live in Hawaiʻi,” said Brian Neilson, administrator of the Hawaiʻi Division of Aquatic Resources. “Reef-based recreation is deeply tied to traditions of fishing, gathering, and caring for our nearshore waters.”

A call for local action

The findings connect directly to local state-led efforts such as 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 Holomua Marine Initiative, which works with communities and Indigenous knowledge holders to design site-specific reef management.

“The magnitude of those potential losses should be a wake-up call to take action now to protect our nearshore environment,” said senior author Kirsten L.L. Oleson, NREM professor. “Our lab’s research suggests that a lot can be accomplished through local action, particularly by reducing land-based pollution and over-harvesting.”

The research was supported by NOAA鈥檚 Ocean Acidification Program.

Starting July 1, the Hawaiʻi community can receive free, personalized monthly climate updates tailored specifically to their own neighborhood or coastline delivered straight to their inbox. Developed by the University of 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 Hawaiʻi Climate Data Portal (HCDP), the new Monthly Climate Summary tool translates complex scientific metrics into highly localized, plain-language updates on rainfall, temperature and drought conditions.

Whether you are a rancher monitoring drought signs, a water manager tracking watershed health, a teacher looking for real-world classroom data, or a resident wanting to stay connected to a beloved valley, the tool brings high-resolution climate data directly to the community.

“Not everyone understands how much rainfall typically falls in their area of interest,” said Ryan Longman, director of HCDP and Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center (PI-CASC) University Consortium program director at (Hawaiʻi Sea Grant). “But if you let them know that it was 50% below normal, or that it was the third driest month in the last century; that鈥檚 the type of information that anyone can understand.”

Tailoring data to traditional boundaries

Subscribers can customize their summaries using traditional Hawaiian geographic boundaries—moku and ahupuaʻa—as well as standard climate divisions and watershed boundaries. This reflects the HCDP team’s commitment to making data meaningful within the state鈥檚 unique cultural and ecological landscape.

To sign up, users can visit the HCDP Climate Summary page, select an area of interest on an interactive map, and enter their email address. Users can subscribe to multiple locations. Each month, they will receive localized climate overviews alongside access to an online dashboard for digging deeper into current and historical trends.

“We wanted end users to be able to connect with the data from the places that meant the most to them,” said Cherryle Heu, HCDP climate data analyst and lead climate summary developer. “When you select a point on the map the numbers will update to tell you exactly what is going on at that location. Given that 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 climate is so diverse, this type of tool allows for local insights that a single statewide average can鈥檛 capture.”

Community-backed resilience

The tool’s development was initially funded by NOAA鈥檚 National Integrated Drought Information System until the grant was canceled in December 2025.

“We were too far along to stop,” Longman said. Support from the DLNR Commission on Water Resource Management allowed the team to complete the tool, a grant from PI-CASC helped support outreach efforts, and the NSF EPSCoR Change Hawaiʻi project provided the cyberinfrastructure foundation that makes it all run.

The HCDP team consists of several grant researchers based in Hawaiʻi Sea Grant and the 糖心视频 Water Resources Research Center. The Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange Team also led this effort along with collaborators across the state who helped shape the final product.

Researchers at the University of Hawaiʻi at M膩noa were awarded a $2.2 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to support the next phase of the Maui LOA (Learnings to Overcome Adversities) study, which examines the long-term impacts of the 2023 Maui wildfires and factors that influence health and well-being after disasters.

The three-year award is led by Alex Ortega, dean of the , and Keawe Kaholokula, chair and professor in the Department of Native Hawaiian Health at the (JABSOM).

“The first phase of Maui LOA revealed important lessons about the health and mental health consequences of the wildfires,” said Ortega. “With NIH鈥檚 continued support, we can now translate those lessons into evidence-based strategies that improve disaster preparedness, recovery and resilience for communities facing future disasters.”

Lessons from Maui residents

Researchers will survey 1,200 adults who were living on Maui during the wildfires, including those who were displaced, to examine factors that influence long-term recovery and disaster response among individuals, families, communities, healthcare systems and social service organizations across Maui.

Related 糖心视频 News story: Study links 2023 Maui wildfire to spike in suicide, overdose, August 7, 2025

The new award builds on an initial phase that gathered perspectives from residents, community organizations, emergency responders and healthcare providers to help guide the survey design.

Recent findings published in the Journal of the American Medical Association in August 2025 showed that the mental health effects of the wildfires extended across Maui, not just within burn zones. The study identified housing displacement and income loss as key drivers of depression and anxiety.

The survey findings are expected to inform public policy, emergency response planning, health services and community recovery efforts in Hawaiʻi and nationwide.

“Nearly three years into the recovery, we hope to learn more about the personal, sociocultural, community and system-level factors that promote health and well-being after experiencing a devastating disaster, such as the 2023 Maui wildfire,” Kaholokula said.

He added, “Recovery is not the same for everyone. We hope to understand how these factors evolve over time and vary across different populations as communities continue to rebuild.”

The University of Hawaiʻi is set to play a pivotal role in a new national effort to strengthen America鈥檚 seafood supply and expand sustainable aquaculture. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the creation of the Cooperative Institute Fostering Aquaculture Research and Markets (CIFARM).

Funded by an initial $13.5 million investment for its first year, this five-year cooperative institute aims to harness partnerships with researchers to unlock the potential of U.S. marine aquaculture. The University of New Hampshire will serve as the host institution, with 糖心视频 participating as one of five core consortium members in this competitive national program.

The 糖心视频 research team is being led by Associate Professor Chatham Callan out of the 糖心视频 Hilo (PACRC). Callan is joined by co-investigators Professor Maria Haws of PACRC, Associate Research Professor Erik Franklin of the in the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology at 糖心视频 Mānoa, and Hawaiʻi Sea Grant Associate Director for Extension Darren Okimoto and several other 糖心视频 Faculty partners.

“Being selected as a core member of CIFARM is a testament to the decades of world-class aquaculture research happening right here in Hawaiʻi,” said Callan. “Through our partnerships with Native Hawaiian communities, we draw on a tradition of ocean stewardship and fishpond engineering that stretches back centuries. Our 糖心视频 team is excited to bring that unique Pacific perspective and expertise to the national stage. By focusing on cutting-edge tech, environmental forecasting, and real-world marine demonstration projects, we are actively building the blueprint for a more resilient, self-sufficient seafood industry.”

$24B in imported seafood annually

CIFARM‘s core mission is to solve real-world challenges affecting seafood producers and consumers while reducing the nation’s reliance on imported seafood. Currently, Americans consume more than $24 billion in imported seafood annually, with approximately half estimated to be farmed overseas. By advancing domestic aquaculture, CIFARM aims to bolster national food security, create jobs and uplift coastal economies in complement to wild-capture fisheries.

The 糖心视频 team will contribute to a broad range of research priorities. CIFARM researchers will investigate scientific solutions that can be leveraged for industry advancement. Key focus areas include engineering and technology development, artificial intelligence for aquaculture, environmental observations and forecasting, and marine aquaculture demonstration projects. The consortium will also conduct critical risk management, vulnerability analyses and seafood market research. The Hawaii team will also partner with USAPI researchers, including University of Guam Sea Grant and the in FSM to extend CIFARM鈥檚 reach throughout the Pacific.

“This partnership underscores the University of 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 vital role in advancing sustainable aquaculture systems that directly impact our global food supply,” said Norman Arancon, director of the 糖心视频 Hilo College of Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resource Management. “We have always championed practical, impactful science. Through CIFARM, our researchers and students will be at the forefront of a $13.5 million national effort, utilizing 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 unique seascape to drive economic growth, bolster food security, and train the next generation of leaders in sustainable marine aquaculture.”

Hawaiʻi is uniquely positioned for this work. The state is already home to Blue Ocean Mariculture in Kona, currently the only offshore fish farm in the U.S., providing a vital real-world connection to the consortium’s demonstration and commercialization goals.

In addition to University of New Hampshire and 糖心视频, the network includes Hawaiʻi Sea Grant, New Hampshire Sea Grant, the University of Miami, Florida Sea Grant, the University of Southern Mississippi, the Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium, Hubbs-Sea World Research Institute and California Sea Grant.

Three students from the are spending one year focusing on critical marine policy issues in Washington, D.C. representing the (Hawaiʻi Sea Grant) as 2026 .

Gabrielle Ellis

completed her PhD in biological oceanography in spring 2025, for which she received the Mirikitani Outstanding Dissertation Award. Her dissertation provides baseline ecological descriptions of remote and unexplored habitats of the deep sea, and considers how resilient these habitats are to natural variation and human-induced impacts.

“If I have learned anything through my research as a deep-sea scientist, it is the power of transparent, long-term data in elevating science and protecting important ecosystems,” said Ellis. “I am so excited to witness this through NOAA鈥檚 Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program, and I am honored to be working with the international and multistakeholder network of the Arctic Research Program.”

Jonathan Rosen

began his career as a Peace Corps volunteer as a coastal resource manager, and continued this work in Hawaiʻi supporting the restoration of Hawaiian fishponds and monitoring endangered species in the remote atolls of Papahānaumokuākea. He earned his master鈥檚 degree in marine biology as a NSF Graduate Research Fellow studying the impacts of marine heatwaves on fish physiology.

“To me, this feels like a once in lifetime opportunity to expand my experiences and expertise by working alongside the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Ecological Services Headquarters,” Rosen said. “Through this fellowship I hope to apply my experience in conservation, research and communication towards the implementation of legislation on national conservation priorities, including the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act.”

Sarah Woo

is currently a PhD candidate in the Natural Resources and Environmental Management Department at 糖心视频 Mānoa focusing on collaborative community-based research, management and governance. Her graduate research is based in Kāneʻohe Bay, working alongside the Heʻeia National Estuarine Research Reserve and regional generational lawaiʻa (fishers), marine scientists who work in the Bay, and resource management agencies.

“I feel extremely grateful to have been selected to represent Hawaiʻi as a Knauss Legislative Fellow in Sen. Brian Schatz鈥檚 office focusing on topics such as oceans, climate, fisheries, and water, and assisting with appropriations and science legislation,” said Woo. “Growing up in the Pacific Northwest鈥檚 Washington, I never expected to live and work in Washington, D.C., but am excited for this new adventure to learn about the federal government so that I can come back home to Hawaiʻi after and apply what I have learned to support community needs.”

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Growing up on Rapa Nui, Noah Paoa spent his summers camping by the shore, bodyboarding, and exploring the island鈥檚 landscape with his family. A pivotal moment occurred in 2010 when, at 15 years old, a massive earthquake in Chile triggered a tsunami warning for the island. Paoa watched the shoreline recede so far it seemed as if the ocean had never been there. This experience highlighted how closely life on an island is tied to the forces of the sea, eventually guiding him toward a historic academic milestone.

Graduating with the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa in May, Paoa earned a landmark achievement as the first Rapa Nui person to go through the Rapa Nui school system and earn a doctoral degree. While he is careful to honor those who paved the way, Paoa鈥檚 degree in from the 糖心视频 Mānoa (SOEST) is significant personally and for his community.

“Earning this degree is an honor for me, but it is also the reflection of all the work that Rapa Nui people have done so that Rapa Nui students would have the tools to pursue advanced studies,” Paoa said. “I see myself as a testament and example for future Rapa Nui students and perhaps for students of other small island communities.”

Assessing sea level rise threats

Chip Fletcher, professor and dean of SOEST, served as Paoa鈥檚 advisor for both his master鈥檚 and doctoral degrees. Fletcher said Paoa brought an extraordinary combination of determination, discipline and insight to his graduate work.

“Noah has an incredible work ethic and a rare intuition for coastal science,” Fletcher said. “He has the ability to see both the physical processes shaping island shorelines and the deeper cultural meaning of what is at stake. His research reflects years of hard work, careful thinking, and a deep commitment to serving Rapa Nui and other island communities.”

His doctoral research addresses the , such as ceremonial sites, ancestral landscapes and sacred places.

“Most climate research focuses on impacts to infrastructure and ecosystems, but I wanted to show that coastal cultural heritage is just as vulnerable, and that losing these sites would be more than an archaeological loss, it could result in disruption to cultural identity and continuity,” Paoa said.

Cultural pride and responsibility

Growing up with a Rapa Nui father and a German mother who dedicated part of her life to preserving the Rapa Nui language, Paoa grew up surrounded by both cultural pride and a recognition of the responsibility that comes with preserving language, knowledge and identity. He felt a frustration with the island’s extractive academic past, where outside researchers often benefited their own careers without providing tangible benefits to the local people.

“My research provides new modeling tools and regional datasets to support heritage preservation and climate adaptation planning, but I’ve tried to be clear that what I have produced is to inform management and planning, and that decisions must ultimately be guided by descendant communities and grounded in their own cultural protocols,” Paoa shared.

By pursuing earth sciences, beginning as an undergraduate student at the University of Oregon, Paoa found a way to link geological processes to issues that affect his home island.

“I hope this work inspires future generations of Rapa Nui to pursue scientific paths of their own, helping ensure that research on our island increasingly reflects our own voices, perspectives, and priorities,” said Paoa. “This degree isn’t only mine, it belongs to everyone who made the path possible, and my responsibility now is to carry what I’ve learned back home and put it to use for Rapa Nui.”

–By Marcie Grabowski

University of Hawaiʻi at M膩noa Associate Professor Mapuana Antonio of the received two national awards from the (APHA) for her impact on Native Hawaiian health and climate justice.

Antonio鈥檚 leadership reflects her commitment to integrating Indigenous knowledge into public health education, research and practice. She mentors students in ethical Indigenous research and ensures her work connects ʻ腻颈苍补 (land) and culture to Native Hawaiian health, fully integrating Indigenous perspectives into the field.

“Receiving these awards from APHA is truly an honor and reflects the collective work of our students and communities,” said Antonio, who serves as associate chair in the . “Indigenous knowledge continues to guide solutions for health, wellbeing, and climate justice, and I鈥檓 inspired by our students who carry this work forward intentionally with cultural grounding and with a deep sense of responsibility to our communities.”

Honoring ancestral knowledge, health equity

As the Queen Liliʻuokalani Endowed Professor in Native Hawaiian Culture, Antonio earned the APHA鈥檚 Emerging Leaders Award from the (ICTHP) section for her dedication to health equity.

“She exemplifies the heart of Native Hawaiian Indigenous health,” nominators said. “Her commitment to health equity has made a lasting impact with, for, and by Native Hawaiian communities and Indigenous peoples worldwide, and her work embodies the holistic approach that is at the core of ICTHP, by honoring ancestral knowledge with contemporary scientific research to restore health, resilience and wellbeing.”

Antonio also received the Student Champions for Climate Justice Award for guiding a multidisciplinary student team, including Melissa Kahili-Heede, Caleb Rivera, Camille McComas, Kiʻilaweau Aweau and M膩koa Miura, in organizing the Climate Justice Through Indigenous Knowledge Symposium in October 2025. The event served as a platform for scholars to address environmental sustainability through traditional practices.

To mark the formal launch of a year-long effort to assess climate vulnerability and build resilience across the Waiʻanae Moku, the Waiʻanae Readiness Review held its first community meeting on April 29, at Kamehameha Schools鈥� Kaiāulu Community Learning Center in Māʻili. The project is led by the University of Hawaiʻi at 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 (CRC), headed by Chip Fletcher, dean of the (SOEST), in partnership with the 糖心视频 Mānoa Wildfire Research led by Clay Trauernicht, and the of the City and County of Honolulu.

“We are honored to stand with the people of Waiʻanae in this work,” said Fletcher. “Climate resilience is not something the University can define alone from the outside; it must be grown through pilina—with communities, government partners, agencies, and researchers working together in trust and shared kuleana (responsibility). The ʻike and lived experience of Waiʻanae families, farmers, practitioners, and leaders are essential to understanding the hazards facing the moku and identifying the actions that will protect people, place, and future generations. Guided by aloha ʻāina, this effort recognizes that caring for the land and ocean is inseparable from caring for one another.”

Identifying flood, wildfire hazards

CRC researcher Kayla Yamamoto presented on compound flooding and invited community members to share photographs and firsthand experiences with flooding events to help validate scientific models. Attendees also participated in open discussion, sharing the most pressing challenges and needs across the district.

The review is structured around two committees comprising community members, farmers, government officials, military installation representatives, technical experts, policymakers and non-profit organizations. The committees will meet six times over the course of the project, contributing their manaʻo (thought or idea) and expertise to guide the work.

CRC and the 糖心视频 Wildfire team are developing climate projections scaled specifically to Waiʻanae, covering heat, precipitation/drought, compound flooding, coastal flooding and erosion, high wave run-up, groundwater inundation and wildfire. Given that wildfire risk is severe across the entire moku, the project鈥檚 focus is not on identifying where danger exists, but on determining what actions can be taken to address it.

More than 90 committee members, community members and project team representatives attended the meeting, which opened with a pule (blessing) led by Nohea Stevens. Presentations from Fletcher, Trauernicht, Captain White of Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam and Susan Veazy of the Office of Local Defense and Community Cooperation outlined the origins of the project鈥檚 funding, the process it will follow, and the overarching goal of securing additional resources for priority projects in the moku (district).

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As climate change intensifies extreme weather and environmental conditions across the country, about 65% of U.S. adults are concerned that climate change will negatively affect their personal health, according to a new study published in .

The study, a collaboration between the University of Hawaiʻi at M膩noa and the , analyzed responses from 6,888 adults who participated in the Health Information National Trends Survey.

The study’s co-authors include Alex Ortega, dean of the Thompson school, and Jim Stimpson, a professor at UT Southwestern Medical Center.

How Americans view climate risks

Researchers found that trust in science, political views and personal environmental experiences shape how people perceive the health risks of climate change.

“This study shows that concern about the health impacts of climate change is driven less by who people are and more by how they think and what they experience,” said Ortega. “Trust in science, political perspectives and lived experiences like extreme weather shape whether people recognize climate change as a health threat, which in turn influences public support for environmental and health policies.”

How we communicate about climate and health affects everyone.
—Jim Stimpson

Individuals who reported higher trust in science were more likely to express concern about climate-related health impacts than those with lower levels of trust.

Political views also influenced responses. Compared to respondents who identified as politically liberal, moderates and conservatives were less likely to report concern about climate change harming their health.

Personal environmental experiences further shaped perceptions. Respondents who experienced extreme weather in their neighborhoods were more likely to express concern. Similarly, those worried about outdoor air quality were more likely to perceive climate-related health risks.

The findings suggest public health messaging should focus on building trust in science, reaching people across political perspectives and connecting climate change to local conditions people can directly experience. Researchers said that approach could help public health agencies and policymakers keep communities informed and engaged as climate policies evolve.

“How we communicate about climate and health affects everyone,” said Stimpson. “When messages don’t build trust or feel personally relevant, people are less likely to recognize these risks or support policies that protect public health.”

For decades, scientists have worked to improve predictions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate powerhouse that can cause droughts, flooding, marine heatwaves and more around the world. Researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa a study showing that they can skillfully predict El Niño and La Niña 15 months ahead of time using only observations of the ocean surface temperature and height—no complex climate model needed.

“We found that it can predict El Niño and La Niña surprisingly well, with useful skill up to about 15 months ahead,” said Yuxin Wang, lead author of the study and postdoctoral researcher with the in the 糖心视频 Mānoa (SOEST). “Accurately predicting ENSO more than a year in advance is important because it can provide early warning, allowing communities, governments and resource managers to take actions and make adaptations to reduce the potential impacts from El Niño and La Niña.”

“Our simpler, data-driven empirical climate model, built only from ocean observations related to two core climate memories known for over 50 years, achieves ENSO forecast skill comparable to, and in some cases better than, many of today鈥檚 more complex climate models and leading AI-based approaches,” added Wang.

Building on past discoveries

Klaus Wyrtki, a pioneering oceanographer at SOEST in the 1960s through 1990s, was the first to show that sea level changes can reveal heat build-up in the tropical Pacific, which led him to propose using tide gauge observations to predict El Niño. Klaus Hasselmann, a German oceanographer and Nobel laureate, showed that the ocean can retain a memory of past climate conditions through large-scale temperature patterns, including sea surface temperature patterns outside the tropical Pacific that can still influence ENSO.

Building on these two principles, the SOEST team developed the “Wyrtki-CSLIM,” short for Wyrtki CycloStationary Linear Inverse Model, a computer model to predict ENSO.

Predicting future ENSO

The Wyrtki-CSLIM currently predicts the development of a strong El Niño, more than 2°C warmer than normal over the equatorial eastern Pacific, toward the end of this year. This up-to-date is available online at the 糖心视频 Sea Level Center.

“Our Wyrtki model is predicting a stronger El Niño than most of the other statistical models, and it is in line with the much more sophisticated dynamical models,” said Matthew Widlansky, study co-author and associate director of the 糖心视频 Sea Level Center. “However, it is important to note that all models have uncertainties, and the climate impacts of each El Niño event are different.”

This new research also offers a clear direction for other ENSO forecasting systems.

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University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa professor David Ho was selected as a lead author for the on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). The report will give guidance to countries regarding how to estimate and report the emissions they manage through those methods as part of their national greenhouse gas inventories.

CDR and CCUS are tools to help countries achieve their emissions and climate targets, and the diversity of approaches to remove and capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are growing fast.

“However, countries currently lack consistent, scientifically rigorous guidance on estimating and reporting the emissions they manage through these technologies in their national greenhouse gas inventories,” said Ho. “Without that, it’s very difficult to hold anyone accountable or to determine whether CDR and CCUS are actually delivering on their promises. This methodology report is about building the foundation to get the accounting right so that progress in CDR and CCUS is real and verifiable.”

The current federal administration withdrew the U.S. from the IPCC process earlier this year, creating a gap in U.S. expert representation in the IPCC. An observer organization nominated Ho so that U.S.-based expertise could still contribute to this report.

“The IPCC has brought together lead authors from a wide range of disciplines and geographies, and the conversations are already substantive and rigorous,” Ho said. “There’s a real shared sense that this report matters, that it will shape how governments think about CDR and CCUS for years to come. It’s a significant commitment, but one I think is genuinely worth making.”

The first lead author meeting was held in Rome, Italy, in April. More than 150 experts, selected by the IPCC Task Force Bureau, are participating in the writing process.

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