For decades, scientists have worked to improve predictions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate powerhouse that can cause droughts, flooding, marine heatwaves and more around the world. Researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa a study showing that they can skillfully predict El Niño and La Niña 15 months ahead of time using only observations of the ocean surface temperature and height—no complex climate model needed.

“We found that it can predict El Niño and La Niña surprisingly well, with useful skill up to about 15 months ahead,” said Yuxin Wang, lead author of the study and postdoctoral researcher with the in the 糖心视频 Mānoa (SOEST). “Accurately predicting ENSO more than a year in advance is important because it can provide early warning, allowing communities, governments and resource managers to take actions and make adaptations to reduce the potential impacts from El Niño and La Niña.”

“Our simpler, data-driven empirical climate model, built only from ocean observations related to two core climate memories known for over 50 years, achieves ENSO forecast skill comparable to, and in some cases better than, many of today鈥檚 more complex climate models and leading AI-based approaches,” added Wang.

Building on past discoveries

Klaus Wyrtki, a pioneering oceanographer at SOEST in the 1960s through 1990s, was the first to show that sea level changes can reveal heat build-up in the tropical Pacific, which led him to propose using tide gauge observations to predict El Niño. Klaus Hasselmann, a German oceanographer and Nobel laureate, showed that the ocean can retain a memory of past climate conditions through large-scale temperature patterns, including sea surface temperature patterns outside the tropical Pacific that can still influence ENSO.

Building on these two principles, the SOEST team developed the “Wyrtki-CSLIM,” short for Wyrtki CycloStationary Linear Inverse Model, a computer model to predict ENSO.

Predicting future ENSO

The Wyrtki-CSLIM currently predicts the development of a strong El Niño, more than 2°C warmer than normal over the equatorial eastern Pacific, toward the end of this year. This up-to-date is available online at the 糖心视频 Sea Level Center.

“Our Wyrtki model is predicting a stronger El Niño than most of the other statistical models, and it is in line with the much more sophisticated dynamical models,” said Matthew Widlansky, study co-author and associate director of the 糖心视频 Sea Level Center. “However, it is important to note that all models have uncertainties, and the climate impacts of each El Niño event are different.”

This new research also offers a clear direction for other ENSO forecasting systems.

.

University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa professor David Ho was selected as a lead author for the on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). The report will give guidance to countries regarding how to estimate and report the emissions they manage through those methods as part of their national greenhouse gas inventories.

CDR and CCUS are tools to help countries achieve their emissions and climate targets, and the diversity of approaches to remove and capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are growing fast.

“However, countries currently lack consistent, scientifically rigorous guidance on estimating and reporting the emissions they manage through these technologies in their national greenhouse gas inventories,” said Ho. “Without that, it’s very difficult to hold anyone accountable or to determine whether CDR and CCUS are actually delivering on their promises. This methodology report is about building the foundation to get the accounting right so that progress in CDR and CCUS is real and verifiable.”

The current federal administration withdrew the U.S. from the IPCC process earlier this year, creating a gap in U.S. expert representation in the IPCC. An observer organization nominated Ho so that U.S.-based expertise could still contribute to this report.

“The IPCC has brought together lead authors from a wide range of disciplines and geographies, and the conversations are already substantive and rigorous,” Ho said. “There’s a real shared sense that this report matters, that it will shape how governments think about CDR and CCUS for years to come. It’s a significant commitment, but one I think is genuinely worth making.”

The first lead author meeting was held in Rome, Italy, in April. More than 150 experts, selected by the IPCC Task Force Bureau, are participating in the writing process.

For more information, .

University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa researchers revealed that Waikīkī is facing a fundamental shift in flood hazards as sea levels rise—transitioning from a flooding that is driven primarily by rainfall to events increasingly dominated by tidal processes. The team identified two key pathways that will become more significant with sea-level rise, both of which will increase public exposure to sewage-contaminated waters. The study was published in .

“Our findings make clear that current flood management strategies for Waikīkī are incomplete,” said Kayla Yamamoto, climate modeling analyst at the in the 糖心视频 Mānoa (SOEST). “Most planning focuses on surface damage and economic loss from storms, but largely ignores the contamination dimension. Our results show that contaminated flooding will become more frequent, more extensive, and eventually a daily occurrence rather than a storm-driven one. There are currently no effective management strategies in place to address this.”

Simulating future scenarios

The team used an open-source, physics-based flood model to simulate how multiple flood sources interact in Waikīkī. The team used an advanced flood model that, unlike previous models, integrates all sources of flooding—rain, tides, underground water behavior, and storm drains—to provide a single, complete view of the hazard

“What we found is that during extreme rainfall like we鈥檝e been experiencing, high tides and elevated water levels in the Ala Wai can combine to create conditions where contaminated water flows back into low-lying streets and sidewalks,” said Shellie Habel, study co-author and coastal geologist with the Coastal Research Collaborative and . “As sea level rises, it will take less extreme rainfall and tides to cause similar flooding in the future.”

The two key pathways they identified were: storm drain backflow, where polluted water from the Ala Wai Canal is forced into streets and public spaces in Waikīkī through drainage systems, and groundwater emergence, which brings sewage and other contaminants from aging and leaking sewage infrastructure to the surface.

The model simulations show that storm drain backflow is projected to occur even when there is no rainfall:

• 1 foot of sea-level rise: Storm drain backflow occurs during extreme tides, even without rain.
• 2 feet of sea-level rise: Storm drain backflow occurs during moderate daily tidal conditions.
• 4 feet of sea-level rise: Groundwater emergence (bringing sewage to the surface) begins to occur without rain.

Researchers compared their model simulations against tide gauges, canal water level sensors, groundwater monitoring wells, and photographs of street-level flooding during three real recent storm events, including a major 50-year Kona storm in December 2021, a moderate storm in April 2023, and a five-year Kona storm in May 2024.

Implications for Waikīkī, beyond

The Ala Wai Canal is one of the most polluted waterways in Hawaiʻi, containing sewage, heavy metals and pathogens such as Vibrio and MRSA. Exposure to these waters is a documented risk, with MRSA infections linked to Hawaiʻi waters already contributing to an estimated 200 deaths per year in the state. Because Waikīkī is a primary economic engine where residents and visitors are in constant contact with coastal waters, the anticipated flooding represents a growing public health and environmental crisis.

Many coastal cities around the world rely on estuarine waterways to drain their stormwater, and face the same combination of aging infrastructure, rising seas and contaminated waters.

“Our modeling framework is transferable, and we hope this study serves as a wake-up call to modernize stormwater and wastewater infrastructure, integrate contamination risk into coastal flood planning, and build early warning systems before these thresholds are crossed,” Yamamoto said.

Internationally acclaimed poet and Marshall Islands climate envoy Kathy Jet帽il-Kijiner, who is serving as the Spring 2026 Dan and Maggie Inouye Distinguished Chair in Democratic Ideals at the University of Hawaiʻi at 惭腻苍辞补, will deliver a keynote lecture and poetry performance on April 1 at Orvis Auditorium. The free, public event invites the campus and broader community to hear directly from one of the Pacific鈥檚 leading voices on climate and justice.

As this year鈥檚 Inouye Chair, Jet帽il-Kijiner is engaging the community on urgent issues shaping democratic life. Her lecture explores how the climate crisis in the Marshall Islands is inseparable from histories of colonialism, nuclear testing and displacement, offering a powerful, Pacific-centered perspective that connects lived experience to global climate conversations.

“As a writer, performer and diplomat, she moves across disciplines while creating art that brings people together,” said Peter Arnade, dean of the . “She offers a vital Pacific voice against the violence of the past and present. She reminds us what poetry can do, and why the humanities matter in a dehumanizing age.”

Jet帽il-Kijiner currently serves as a climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, where she works on international climate diplomacy and national adaptation policy.

“Kathy Jet帽il-Kijiner is a force in culture and climate diplomacy,” said Joyce Mariano, chair of the . “She has ignited audiences with poetry and performance from Majuro to Suva, Brisbane to Bonn. Her work will resonate deeply in Hawaiʻi, and we are thrilled to have her in residence.”

Jet帽il-Kijiner is co-teaching a class at 糖心视频 惭腻苍辞补 and holding regular workshops with students. She will also headline a community arts event at Native Books Hawaiʻi on April 17 at 6 p.m.

Inouye chair

The Dan and Maggie Inouye Distinguished Chair in Democratic Ideals, established by the late Senator Daniel Inouye and his wife, is jointly administered by 糖心视频 惭腻苍辞补鈥檚 and the .

This event is produced in collaboration with Hawaiʻi Contemporary and in partnership with the 糖心视频 Better Tomorrow Speaker Series, a joint venture of 糖心视频 惭腻苍辞补, Hawaiʻi Community Foundation, Kamehameha Schools and 糖心视频 Foundation. For more information or contact btss@hawaii.edu.

From 135 mph wind gusts on Hawaiʻi Island to 62 inches of rainfall on Maui, a recent Kona low system brought weather conditions usually reserved for major hurricanes to the state. These extreme totals were captured by the University of 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 Hawaiʻi Mesonet, a weather monitoring system that is mapping localized threats across areas that previously had no data available. 糖心视频鈥檚 Hawaiʻi Climate Data Portal team created a report on the storm.

Alongside immense flooding, the storm brought destructive winds. The Hawaiʻi Mesonet station at Kaiāulu Puʻuwaʻawaʻa on Hawaiʻi Island recorded a maximum wind gust of 135.4 mph. Winds were briefly sustained at speeds equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane, averaging 105 mph over a 15-minute period.

Maui was hit the hardest, with peak rainfall totals reaching 62 inches in localized regions. Hawaiʻi Island also saw heavy precipitation, with areas recording 16–32 inches, and isolated spots also nearing 62 inches. Both Kauaʻi and Oʻahu recorded maximum totals ranging 16–32 inches. Molokaʻi and Lānaʻi experienced peak amounts 4–16 inches.

The upper elevations of Haleakalā experienced the most extreme rainfall, with 33.2 inches falling during the 24-hr period beginning March 13 at 8:30 a.m., nearly double the highest 24-hr rainfall previously recorded there. That amount is much greater than the NOAA‘s official estimate of 19.7 inches in 24 hours for the 1000-year storm (the rainfall amount with a 0.1% chance of being equalled or exceeded in any given year). Rainfall was even higher at the Kuiki Hawaiʻi Mesonet station on the east rim of Haleakalā crater with 36 inches falling in 24 hours beginning at 6 p.m. on March 13. This amount exceeded the NOAA 24-hr 1000-year extreme rainfall estimate of 28.5 inches.

“Before the project began, Hawaiʻi was one of only 20 states without a comprehensive statewide weather monitoring system, meaning we previously had no access to information in many of these areas,” said Tom Giambelluca, Hawaiʻi Mesonet project lead, and former director of the 糖心视频 Water Resources Research Center. “Now, the system is constantly collecting data on rainfall, soil moisture, and other weather variables that can tell us in real time if an area is highly susceptible to fires or flooding, which ultimately allows us to be as prepared as possible”

To make this information accessible, 糖心视频 launched a real-time weather dashboard offering public access to live weather data from more than 70 monitoring stations currently active across the state. The dashboard updates data every 15 minutes, allowing users to view current, localized conditions including temperature, rainfall, wind, humidity, solar radiation and soil moisture. This creates one of the most comprehensive and timely weather resources available in Hawaiʻi.

The University of Hawaiʻi at Hilo will lead a new $1.2 million, three-year grant funded by NASA to better understand how 贬补飞补颈ʻ颈鈥檚 coastlines can withstand climate change while expanding hands-on research and workforce development opportunities for students across the 10-campus 糖心视频 System.

John Burns, an associate professor of will co-lead the project with Haunani Kane, assistant professor of at the 糖心视频 惭腻苍辞补 .

“We are very excited to connect students from across the 糖心视频 system through applied research experiences that help build educational pathways into careers in science and conservation,” said Burns.

The team will study how sea level rise and warming oceans are affecting coral reefs and nearshore areas. Students will learn satellite mapping, drone surveys, reef modeling and data analysis. They will also work with faculty, community partners and NASA scientists.

Burns directs 糖心视频 贬颈濒辞鈥檚 , where he creates detailed three-dimensional maps of reefs. Those maps show how storms, bleaching and human activity change reef structure and health over time.

—By Susan Enright

A team of researchers are calling for a new generation of carefully designed ocean iron fertilization (OIF) field trials to determine whether this marine carbon dioxide (CO2) removal method can safely and effectively leverage a natural ocean process to pull CO2 out of the atmosphere. Led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the authors, including two from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, argue that larger, longer studies with rigorous monitoring and clear “go/no-go” safeguards, are needed to accurately assess OIF as a potential long-term CO2 storage solution. The paper was .

“The ocean science community must explore all possible means for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and identify any unintended ecological consequences,” said David Karl, co-author, professor of and director of the in the 糖心视频 Mānoa (SOEST). “Humans continue to pollute our planet; the time for bold action is now.”

Past OIF field studies found that relatively tiny additions of iron in some parts of the ocean can stimulate the growth of small, plant-like organisms known as phytoplankton that live in the surface ocean. These organisms use sunlight and CO2 dissolved in seawater to grow and multiply, which in turn pulls more CO2 out of the atmosphere into the surface ocean in the process. However, those early experiments were not designed to assess the efficacy, durability and feasibility of OIF, nor did they specifically evaluate the broader ecological and biogeochemical impacts of large-scale additions of iron.

The next generation of trials would need to capture phytoplankton bloom development, and the process of bloom decay, the fate of newly produced carbon, and any potential ecosystem impacts. The authors propose experiments lasting more than 3–6 months and spanning an area of about 1,000 square kilometers, with an explicit requirement to document a return to natural conditions after iron additions end.

The authors suggested the Gulf of Alaska in the Northeast Pacific as a promising location based on the region’s low-iron conditions, the availability of decades of research in the area at Ocean Station Papa, evidence of natural iron-driven blooms in the past, and physical characteristics that may help keep the iron-fertilized patch from dispersing too rapidly.

Traditional Hawaiian fishponds (loko iʻa) are emerging as a model for climate resilience, according to a study from the University of Hawaiʻi at at 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 (HIMB). The research, published in , revealed Indigenous aquaculture systems effectively shield fish populations from the negative impacts of climate change, demonstrating resilience and bolstering local food security.

“Our study is one of the first in academic literature to compare the temperatures between loko iʻa and the surrounding bay and how these temperature differences may be reflected in potential fish productivity,” said lead author Annie Innes-Gold, a recent PhD graduate from 糖心视频. “We found that although rising water temperature may lead to declines in fish populations, loko iʻa fish populations were more resilient (fish populations did not decline as much as fish populations in the surrounding estuary) to rising water temperatures than those in the surrounding estuary. This result is likely due to the temperature regulation that the loko iʻa receives from freshwater input, both at the surface and below the ground.”

The authors found that the combined benefits of fisheries regulations, nutrient flow restoration, and restocking were found to offset some of the potentially negative effects of warming on fish populations and substantially increase short– and long–term estuarine and loko iʻa fish density.

Ancient tech for modern management

Innes-Gold worked with an interdisciplinary team that included university researchers, resource managers and loko iʻa practitioners.

“These findings highlight how important freshwater inputs are as a source of temperature regulation,” said Innes-Gold. “They also support the importance of biocultural restoration in terms of enhancing fish populations and increasing social–ecological resilience in a changing climate.”

For Hawaiʻi, the findings demonstrate the value that Indigenous knowledge and systems have on guiding modern science.

“Loko iʻa are a system unique to Hawaiʻi, and their restoration can have wide–reaching benefits including cultural preservation, education, healthy ecosystems, food security, and now—from what we found in our study—also climate resilience,” said Innes-Gold.

.

Four postgraduate fellows from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa were selected to work directly with Hawaiʻi-based organizations through the (Hawaiʻi Sea Grant) E. Gordon Grau Coastal and Marine Resource Management and Policy Fellowship Program (Grau Fellowship).

“We’re thrilled to mark the sixth year of the Grau Fellowship, which has grown to include 18 Grau Fellows in this newest cohort,” said Maya Walton, Hawaiʻi Sea Grant assistant director for research and fellowships. “The host offices, dedicated mentors, and Hawaiʻi Sea Grant staff and faculty are all collaborating to provide the practical training and experience necessary to prepare the next generation of professionals working at the interface of science, policy and resource management.”

Department of Land and Natural Resources Division of Aquatic Resources (DAR)

Olivia Boucher will focus on DAR鈥檚 Holomua Marine Initiative, building and expanding on the work of past fellows who designed island-based management strategies and community-based monitoring plans for this initiative. Boucher will focus her efforts on community engagement, policy research, and cross-sector collaboration that will help bridge science, the public and decision-making. Boucher holds a master of environmental management from 糖心视频 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 (NREM).

Department of Land and Natural Resources Office of Conservation and Coastal Lands

Leigh Engel will be supporting the Office of Conservation and Coastal Lands in managing and protecting Hawaiʻi鈥檚 shoreline resources. She will be implementing place-based approaches that mirror natural systems to address coastal erosion and hazard mitigation, while advancing long-term goals of conserving beaches, dunes, estuaries and other vital ecosystems. Engel earned a master of science in NREM from 糖心视频 Mānoa, where she was also a Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center Scholar.

City and County of Honolulu Office of Climate Change, Sustainability and Resilience

Maddy McKenna will be working with the Coastal and Water Program team to implement the city鈥檚 adaptation strategy, honoring both Western science and Indigenous ecological knowledge in developing people-centered solutions for Oʻahu鈥檚 threatened coastlines. McKenna earned a master of arts in climate and society from Columbia University, and a PhD in from 糖心视频 Mānoa.

Matt Miller will work on cutting-edge climate mitigation strategies such as managed retreat and to support and enhance the city鈥檚 partnerships with community-based organizations. His goal is to use his experience researching severe and shifting weather in the tropics to help build a resilient Oʻahu through planning and outreach measures. Miller earned a master of science in atmospheric science from 糖心视频 Mānoa.

The paid fellowship, named in honor of Emeritus Professor E. Gordon Grau, Hawaiʻi Sea Grant鈥檚 visionary former director, provides early career professionals the opportunity to obtain relevant resource management and policy experience in Hawaiʻi and, for many, to pursue career opportunities in their home state.

.

–By Cindy Knapman

A University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa project aimed at boosting climate resilience on Oʻahu鈥檚 Waiʻanae coast has been awarded a $2.4 million grant from the Department of Defense鈥檚 Office of Local Defense Community Cooperation. Led by the (CRC) in the (SOEST), the “Building Climate Resilience in Waiʻanae Moku” initiative will address escalating threats from natural hazards. This funding will support efforts to safeguard communities and critical military infrastructure in the Lualualei Annex, ensuring a more resilient future for the geographically vulnerable leeward region.

“Located in a region highly vulnerable to wildland fires, extreme heat, drought, coastal erosion, flooding, and compound hazard events, Waiʻanae Moku faces growing risks that jeopardize community resilience, transportation access, and effective military operations,” said Juliette Budge, project lead and operations project manager with CRC. “This project integrates cutting-edge climate hazard modeling with robust community engagement to build resilience across both military and civilian landscapes.”

“A hallmark of the project is its inclusive, participatory approach,” said Chip Fletcher, SOEST dean and director of CRC. “The funding specifically supports the creation of two key advisory bodies that will bring together installation leadership, local agencies, and, most importantly, community representatives. This structure ensures that adaptation strategies reflect shared priorities and are grounded in local, place-based knowledge.”

18-month initiative

The 18-month initiative will culminate in an installation readiness assessment, prioritized adaptation projects, and a comprehensive action plan that enhances both defense capabilities and regional resilience.

CRC researchers will develop high-resolution computer models simulating future wildfire behavior, rainfall-induced flooding, groundwater inundation, coastal erosion, and wave-driven flooding under various coastal flooding scenarios. These models will identify threatened infrastructure, assess risk timelines, and inform adaptation strategies. Results will be shared through an interactive geospatial platform and maps that can guide future decision-making, planning, and investment.

Engaging communities

Broader engagement with surrounding neighborhoods will ensure that the final action plan is a collective effort, reflecting the shared needs of the region. By integrating local knowledge with scientific data, CRC and its partners, including Clay Trauernicht, wildfire expert with 糖心视频 惭ā苍辞补鈥檚 鈥檚 Ecosystems and Landcare Program, will co-develop a comprehensive plan that directly addresses the shared vulnerabilities of the region鈥檚 interconnected roads, utilities and emergency response systems, allowing communities to be better prepared to adapt to and recover from future climate disruptions.

The project is modeled after the Koʻolau Poko Readiness Review, a collaborative effort between the City and County of Honolulu Office of Climate Change, Sustainability and Resiliency and the Coastal Research Collaborative that was recognized with an Outstanding Civil Engineering Achievement Award from the Hawaiʻi Section of the American Society of Civil Engineers.