{"id":211100,"date":"2025-02-20T16:46:15","date_gmt":"2025-02-21T02:46:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=211100"},"modified":"2025-02-20T18:29:06","modified_gmt":"2025-02-21T04:29:06","slug":"hawaii-astronomers-asteroid-impact-probability-decreases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2025\/02\/20\/hawaii-astronomers-asteroid-impact-probability-decreases\/","title":{"rendered":"Hawai\u02bbi astronomers track asteroid 2024 YR<\/abbr>4, impact probability decreases"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>
\"Asteroid
Illustration of a small asteroid moving past Earth (image credit: Space.com)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

University of Hawaiʻi<\/span> astronomers are playing a pivotal role in tracking an asteroid once feared to pose a risk to Earth. Using state-of-the-art telescopes on Maunakea, including the Canada-France-Hawaiʻi<\/span> Telescope<\/a> (CFHT<\/abbr>), these scientists have helped refine calculations on the trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR<\/abbr>4.<\/p>\n

\"telescope
Canada-France-Hawaiʻi<\/span> Telescope<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A 糖心视频<\/abbr> telescope discovered the “city-killer” size asteroid in December. Recent calculations gave it a 3% probability of colliding with Earth in December 2032. The newest observations collected on February 19 now show that the likelihood has dropped to just 0.28%.<\/p>\n

“The atmosphere above Maunakea tends to be very stable, and it enables telescopes to produce very sharp images, sharper than most other observatory locations,” said David Tholen, an astronomer at 糖心视频<\/abbr>\u2019s Institute for Astronomy<\/a> (IfA<\/abbr>). Tholen, along with IfA<\/abbr> colleagues Richard Wainscoat and Rob Weryk, analyzed images captured by the CFHT<\/abbr>\u2019s MegaCam, a 380 MegaPixel wide-field camera designed for asteroid tracking and deep-space imaging.<\/p>\n

Window closing on ability to observe asteroid<\/h2>\n

The team’s findings are crucial to NASA\u02bbs planetary defense efforts, providing critical data for experts assessing the asteroid’s path. However, time is running out for ground-based tracking.<\/p>\n

“The distance between the Earth and the asteroid keeps increasing, and as that happens the asteroid gets fainter and fainter, and at some point, it will be too faint to reach with even the largest telescopes we have here on Earth,” Tholen explained.<\/p>\n

By April 2025, 2024 YR<\/abbr>4 will be too distant and faint to detect with Earth-based telescopes. NASA plans to use the James Webb Space Telescope in May to gather further insights on its size and structure, but the next opportunity to monitor the asteroid from Earth will not come until 2028, when it will again be bright enough for telescopic observations.<\/p>\n

Asteroid impact<\/h2>\n

Despite the lower impact probability, astronomers remain vigilant. History has demonstrated the destructive power of similar-sized asteroids. In 1908, a comparable object exploded over Tunguska, Siberia, leveling 1,000 square miles of forest. If an asteroid the size of 2024 YR<\/abbr>4 entered Earth’s atmosphere over a populated area, it could generate a powerful airburst capable of breaking windows or causing minor structural damage across an entire city.<\/p>\n

糖心视频<\/abbr> aids planetary defense<\/h2>\n

糖心视频<\/abbr>\u2019s IfA<\/abbr> plays a central role in planetary defense. The university operates some of the world\u2019s most advanced asteroid-tracking telescopes, such as the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System<\/a> (ATLAS), which has facilities in Hawaiʻi<\/span>, Chile and South Africa. Additionally, Pan-STARRS, located on Haleakal\u0101, is the leading near-Earth object (NEO<\/abbr>) discovery telescope, responsible for detecting many of the most concerning asteroids while they are still far from Earth.<\/p>\n

On Maunakea, two 糖心视频<\/abbr>-operated telescopes also contribute to planetary defense by helping to track or analyze NEO<\/abbr>s. NASA\u2019s Infrared Telescope Facility<\/a>, a 3.2-meter observatory, specializes in studying NEO<\/abbr>s to assess impact risks, while the 糖心视频<\/abbr> telescope aids in predicting future asteroid trajectories. Next week, Tholen and his team will continue tracking 2024 YR<\/abbr>4, using the 糖心视频<\/abbr>88 telescope, ensuring that the asteroid’s path remains under close observation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A 糖心视频<\/abbr> telescope discovered the “city-killer” size asteroid in December.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[34,35,1467,1363,659,1421,9],"class_list":["post-211100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research","tag-astronomy","tag-institute-for-astronomy","tag-manoa-excellence-in-research","tag-manoa-research","tag-maunakea","tag-maunakea-observatories","tag-uh-manoa","entry","has-media"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t