{"id":241215,"date":"2026-09-25T00:01:32","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T10:01:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/?p=241215"},"modified":"2026-09-25T01:30:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T11:30:23","slug":"uhero-third-quarter-forecast-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hawaii.edu\/news\/2026\/09\/25\/uhero-third-quarter-forecast-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"No respite from storms, oil prices, 糖心视频ERO<\/abbr> forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading time: <\/span> 3<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

\"coastline<\/p>\n

Hawaiʻi<\/span>\u2019s economy has slowed this year under the weight of war-driven oil prices and an unusually active storm season, including two hurricanes within three weeks, according to the University of Hawaiʻi<\/span> Economic Research Organization<\/a>\u2019s (糖心视频ERO<\/abbr>) quarter 3 forecast for 2026.<\/p>\n

Real GDP<\/abbr> growth will fall to about half a percent in 2026, from more than 3% last year, and payroll employment will edge lower. 糖心视频ERO<\/abbr> expects gradual relief as energy prices ease and storm recovery proceeds, with growth and hiring firming in 2027 and 2028. An aging, shrinking population will keep job gains modest, and continued AI<\/abbr> investment offers upside potential for incomes, although the extent remains uncertain.<\/p>\n

“Overall, we expect 2027 to bring gradual economic improvement to the state as energy prices and storm effects recede, although the persistent Middle East conflict remains a primary risk, together with election-related policy uncertainty,” 糖心视频ERO<\/abbr> wrote. “Slowly declining population will mean a tepid trend employment path, while AI<\/abbr> adoption could provide a potential upside income surprise in the years ahead.”<\/p>\n

Takeaways from the September 25 report:<\/p>\n