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ORE Seminar: Short-Term and Extended-Range Wave Forecasting for Hawaii

HawaiÊ»i’s wave climate is shaped by a dynamic interplay of local and distant weather systems across a range of spatial and temporal scales, producing diverse and often complex wave conditions. To capture Hawaii’s multimodal seas, we have developed an operational numerical wave modeling system that integrates third-generation spectral wave models with a telescopic, nested grid system, driven by global surface winds and regional atmospheric downscaling. The system delivers daily wave forecasts 7–14 days into the future, providing critical information for coastal management, marine operations, and hazard preparedness. Beyond operational forecasting, we conduct long-term wave hindcasts for the Hawaiian Islands, generating a comprehensive dataset that supports a broad range of applications, from wave climate characterization and wave energy resource assessment to shoreline change analysis, coral reef ecosystem research, and coastal engineering design. These hindcasts also provide a basis for investigating how HawaiÊ»i’s wave climate responds to large-scale climate variability, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Leveraging the strong relationship between ENSO and regional wave conditions, we have developed a statistical–dynamical framework for seasonal wave outlook. By integrating numerical modeling, long-term climate analysis, and seasonal prediction, our work bridges timescales from daily operational forecasts to seasonal outlooks, advancing our ability to anticipate changing wave conditions and support informed decision-making across HawaiÊ»i’s coastal and marine sectors. // Ning Li, Ocean Wave Model Systems Specialist, ORE, ÌÇÐÄÊÓƵ ²ÑÄå²Ô´Ç²¹

Event Sponsor
Ocean and Resources Engineering, Mānoa Campus

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